This means that improving the forecasting of these storms is a major priority as was specified in the 2017 Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program.Ī suite of models has been developed with support from NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed to aid forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in predicting rapid intensification in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The largest operational intensity forecast errors occur due to the difficulty in forecasting processes relating to rapid intensification. Rapid intensification occurs in over 80% of major hurricanes and all category four and five hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Prediction These real-time runs also will form a basis for further model improvements, as well as research studies examining the details of the track, intensity, and structure evolution of tropical cyclones. This has allowed for real-time evaluation of the model’s performance in cases like Hurricanes Dorian and Humberto. Our group is also actively involved in the development and evaluation of changes to model physics by using the high-quality observations collected in HRD’s Hurricane Field Program.Īs part of the ongoing HAFS development, AOML has maintained a real-time experimental HAFS that runs every 6 hours during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, from July through October. One important HAFS development will be the advancement of the model dynamical core to include high-resolution moving nests. The Hurricane Modeling group is actively involved in the development of HAFS, along with partners throughout NOAA. HAFS aims to provide reliable and skillful guidance on tropical cyclone track, intensity, and structure, including rapid intensity changes, genesis, and storm size. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is NOAA’s next-generation numerical model and data assimilation system developed within the framework of the Uniform Forecast System (UFS).
HWRF is increasing the reliability of operational forecast guidance and is paving the way to next-generation model developments.
#HURRICANE TRACK MODELS SPAGHETTI VERIFICATION#
HWRF has become one of the top performing operational models for track and intensity predictions-in 2018, its average intensity error for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean was less than 16 kt through five days ( Read the Forecast Verification Report). HWRF’s development and its transition to operations is one of the major accomplishments of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. HWRF was initially developed for improving intensity guidance, but is also used to provide some reliable track guidance, together with the Global Forecasting System and other models. It was designed for capturing tropical cyclone inner core processes, including interactions with the large-scale processes which have been proven to be critical for improving track, intensity, rainfall and size predictions. The HWRF model is a storm-following, double-nested, high-resolution, grid modeling system designed to operate at a horizontal resolution of 2 km or less. These achievements provide hurricane forecasters not only with improved forecast guidance, but also with critical information on the evolution of the three dimensional wind structure within the storm. Using cutting-edge numerical modeling and verification techniques, our research has helped accelerate the advancement of the model’s development and has played a key role in the success of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. These developments formed the backbone of the operational HWRF and resulted in continuous improvements to its track, intensity and structure predictions in the following years. The experimental HWRF incorporated a movable multilevel nesting algorithm with planetary boundary layer and surface physics, carefully calibrated by in situ observations obtained from the hurricane inner-core region.
From 2008-2011, scientists at AOML developed an experimental HWRF to target the intensity change problem. HWRF was transitioned to operations at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction in 2007.
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